The Graduation of Yuko Oshima from AKB48: Where Does the Group Go From Here?

| 48 / 46 Group | Posted by Kai Okudara on Jun.09.2014

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Ever since Yuko Oshima’s dramatic graduation announcement during AKB48’s Kohaku Uta Gassen performance in 2013, and possibly even as far back as Atsuko Maeda’s graduation announcement on the final day of “Gyoumurenraku. Tanomuzo, Katayama Bucho! in Saitama Super Arena” in 2012, the question of “what will become of AKB48?” has been a hot topic for fans and analysts alike. Ever since AKB48’s major debut single “Aitakatta” (2006.02.01)until their 35th single “Mae Shika Mukanee” (2014.02.26), Oshima has been a focal point of the group alongside the original “Kami 7” (the 7 most popular members) which consisted of Atsuko Maeda, Mariko Shinoda, Tomomi Itano, Minami Takahashi, Haruna Kojima, and Mayu Watanabe. The most recent Senbatsu Sousenkyo may have crowned Mayu Watanabe as the new face of the group, but Takahashi and Kojima are no longer included in “Kami 7” as their positions have been taken over by younger members: Haruka Shimazaki (AKB48 Team A), Rena Matsui (SKE48 Team E/Nogizaka46), Jurina Matsui (SKE48 Team S/AKB48 Team K), Yuki Kashiwagi (AKB48 Team B), Sayaka Yamamoto (NMB48 Team N/AKB48 Team K) and last year’s #1 Rino Sashihara (HKT48 Team H).

From the time that Jurina Matsui was made center of “Oogoe Diamond” (2008.10.22) AKB48’s 10th major label single, senbatsu for the following singles have become increasingly more diverse. This has been further complicated by the practice of shuffling members within the groups/teams and giving several members concurrent status in more than one group. Perhaps the most controversial of these moves was when SKE48 Team E member Rena Matsui was given concurrent status in “AKB48’s official rival group” Nogizaka46 and Nogizaka46 member Rina Ikoma was given concurrent status in AKB48’s Team B. With Ikoma ranking 14th in the Senbatsu Sousenkyo, it would not be surprising if such a thing were to happen again. While these moves can be exciting and bring attention to groups/teams that fans might not normally take an interest in, how far can the chemistry of the group/team be altered before the characteristics that made them unique are no longer discernible? Originally, AKB48’s Team A, K, and B were composed of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd generation members and the songs that they performed in the theatre reflected the characteristics of each group. With only a few original members from those teams remaining (Team A: Minami Takahashi and Haruna Kojima, Team K: Kana Kobayashi, Team B: Mayu Watanabe, Yuki Kashiwagi, and Miku Tanabe), returning to those roots is not possible, but AKB48 has always been undergoing changes. Perhaps the question should not be “what will become of AKB48?” but rather, “where will AKB48 go from here?” or more specifically, “how will AKB48 continue to change?”.

The question “what will become of AKB48?” seems to imply that without Yuko Oshima (or Atsuko Maeda, or Itano Tomomi, or Mariko Shinoda) AKB48 as a group would decline greatly in popularity as a result. While fans of Oshima may leave the AKB48 fandom after her graduation, new members which may appeal to new fans are constantly appearing. Haruka Shimazaki (Team A) who placed 7th in the 2014 Senbatsu Sousenkyo joined the group as a 9th generation member in 2009 alongside Yui Yokoyama (Team K) who placed 13th. At the same time, members who have been in the group for a while may experience a breakthrough in popularity, as Miku Tanabe (Team B) did when she placed 71st, her first time ranking since joining the group in 2006. Aside from the large number of votes received by 1st place Mayu Watanabe (159,854 votes), 2nd place Rino Sashihara (141,954 votes), and 3rd place Yuki Kashiwagi (104,364 votes), there was a lower amount of votes for other higher ranking members compared to 2013 but an increase in votes for members ranked from 31st to 80th place.

Given that AKB48 went from a group that had their first performance in front of 7 people on December 8th, 2005 to one that performed in front of 70,000 fans at Ajinomoto Stadium for Yuko Oshima’s graduation concert on June 8th, 2014, even if they were to become half as popular as they currently are would it be considered a failure? If anything, it could be considered a return to their original concept of “idols that you can go meet”. Many of the more popular members rarely appear in theater performances because they are busy appearing on TV shows, filming movies and dramas or being photographed for magazines and photo books. The graduation of Yuko Oshima represents the end of an era in the history of AKB48, but it could also be the start of an era where an AKB48 fronted by Mayu Watanabe, Yuki Kashiwagi, Rino Sashihara, or even Jurina Matsui might begin?

Yuko Oshima Graduation Ceremony at Ajinomoto Stadium (June 8)